2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. All Rights Reserved. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. It almost became religious.". A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Click here, for more. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Ron Elving . It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. We believe this was a mistake. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Free and open-source. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Election night is going to be information overload. Do you know this baby? Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Watch Hampton City. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Enter Donald Trump. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. What results did you discover? The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Read about our approach to external linking. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Trump won 18 of the 19. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Hillary Clinton (578) Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. But it's also not unprecedented. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Republicans have paid some attention. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Just how big is it? In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. These are the bellwether counties. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.".