I really though the time I spent volunteering helping children learn how to read was my most important charitable work, but teaching you what reality is might top that. South Korea is typically a strong nation in international baseball competitions, and this years World Baseball Classic team is a favorite to advance out of their pool. These are the top control artists in MLB; four starters and six relievers that win with accuracy. Gurriel has had an excellent big league career, and one that could have been all the more impressive had he made his way to the majors sooner. His performance on grounders was down relative to his career numbers but was still comfortably above average. Im just saying that projecting 20 WAR in this make-believe world is not conservative at all. Even if his ROS performance was equivalent to 2021, the extra 1.5 WAR pushes him 6 spots up the list. And if he actually looked like a hall of famer while in the U.S. compared to other players his same age, this would be a compelling last hurdle or feather in cap to put him over the top. College baseball is especially strong on the mound this year, including CWS heroes like Vanderbilts Kumar Rocker and Oregon States Kevin Abel, established veterans with high-octane stuff like Ohio States Seth Lonsway and Wake Forests Ryan Cusick and precocious arms still looking to show everyone exactly what theyre capable of like Louisiana States Jaden Hill and Vanderbilts Jack Leiter. 1. As it stands now, no way, but, the dicussion is interesting. If it is just that he got to the states just as his peak was ending, then we are talking about a likely 1st ballot kind of guy. Burnett (2008) and Roger Clemens (1997 and 98), Choi ranks 17th in KBO history in hits and is second all-time in home runs. Who will be 2021s strikeout king? Its pretty tough for players to defect from Cuba, the process can take several years in some cases. So, conservatively, he would be Freddie Freeman, except for the whole thing where Freeman has been much better from age 27 onward. Lee is the best pure hitter in the KBO, with a career batting average of .342 and more career walks than strikeouts. The possibility of losing the MVP seemingly has to outweigh any additional WAR from a resume standpoint. Its a relatively small sample, sure, but Lonsway led the country in strikeouts per nine innings last season by punching out 42 hitters in 18 innings of work. Also since 1992, Abreu ranks 21st in WAR among first baseman for ages 27-35, just behind Fred McGriff. As it stands, he came in second place for the AL MVP and fourth for the AL Cy Young Award. I might pull the stats of MLB players who also have a decent sample in the CNS, and see if theres a quick-and-dirty translation on OBP and SLG. Leo is a writer for FanGraphs and an editor for Just Baseball. All nine Camels in the batting order. We will see who dominates this season when the MLB campaign kicks off. Just look at the list of names who've led their league in strikeouts in recent seasons: Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Chris For the third consecutive year, we asked MLB scouting departments to grade the quality of the 2023 draft class on a 20-80 scale. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
Pujols and Miggy are the only ones with more than Freemans 21.5 WAR (the 4th is Frank Thomas at 20.4 WAR, but hed have 30 if 1990-91 were included). Only 21 went for extra bases. Gurriels Baseball Savant page provides a good preliminary explanation of what went wrong. His Davenport translations were eye-popping for about his last 4 years there. Of note he is second on this age 32-38 leaderboard behind Beltre. Im sorry that online and presumably in real life people tend to just walk away from conversations with you; maybe you should look inward? When hes been healthy, hes been inconsistent in his career, but hes always been able to dominate hitters when hes on. Ever wonder who had the most strikeouts the year you were born? It would be more of a McGriff-like case than a Pujols-like case, but its worth considering, I think. He rarely makes poor swing decisions (23.1% The first is, Joining Lee in the heart of the lineup will be KT Wiz first baseman, Despite his strong performances in the KBO, there are some storylines worth following with Kang in the WBC. Not to agree or disagree with your conclusions overall, but there is some evidence that Abreus time in Cuba was HOF worthy. Byung-ho Park is one of the few names you might know. Now 36 years old, Park is still hitting the ball hard as he led the KBO in hard hit rate last year at 41%, while also finishing second in average exit velocity (just under 90 MPH) and sixth in average launch angle (just over 18 degrees). Im sure if I took time to think it through, I would just come up with more questions. Park signed a four-year deal with the Minnesota Twins before 2016, but struggled in his limited MLB opportunities. Did you think I thought they gave me an extra infield?" The veteran Park is a much better defender, and won the KBO Fielding Bible Award at first base this past season. He wasnt hitting the ball as hard as he used to, so he wasnt getting as many hits. So how did Gurriel get to this point? Im really talking about that that 26-30 run where he had a .250 ISO, racking up 8 more WAR in 80 fewer games than he had from 21-25. Its most certainly conjecture, but its not beyond the realm of possibility, and to say he has no case goes too far, imo. We got just a short glimpse of Leiter as a freshman last season, but there was plenty to like, including 12 strikeouts in five hitless innings against South Alabama in his first start of the season. On one hand, hes one of the more accomplished pitchers here, having pitched Oregon State to a national title in 2018. His first chance to test himself will be against Team Japan in pool play, with Japan having one of the deepest pitching staffs in the tournament. In 584 PA, he was worth -0.9 WAR, the lowest figure among qualified hitters. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. I then included the strikeout, walk, and home run rates for each season as well to see if they helped explain the trends we see. Gurriels swing and o-swing rates jumped back up to where they once were. He took a lot of criticism for how he reacted to Koreas disappointing fourth- place finish in the Tokyo Olympics, though he did hit .308 with a double and 4 RBI over the tournament. Are you still sore because I said that Beltran would be no-doubt, shoe-in, First Ballot HoF if he werent a fucking cheater? Lee is the best pure hitter in the KBO, with a career batting average of .342 and more career walks than strikeouts. Missouri BaptistMISSOURI 12-1 Score By Periods W: Diamond, Micah(3-0) L: T. Hough (0-1) 5 Missouri BaptistMISSOURI12-2 6 WinnerJamestownJAMESTOW6-2 Missouri BaptistMISSOURI 12-2 5 Final Feb. 25, 2023 6 JamestownJAMESTOW 6-2 Score By Periods W: K. Yackley (1-0) In 1929, 80% of all qualified hitters had higher walk rates. Most players who are producing in their mid to late 30s tend to have HOF cases. The core premise of Abreus HoF case is, as stated above: What if Abreu had a crazy peak from 21-27, and 6 of those years came while he couldnt play in the MLB.. update=copyright.getFullYear(); Active Batting Batting Career Leaders & Records for Strikeouts POWERED BY Create your own custom leaderboards Become a Stathead today and run queries with our Turns out, its exceedingly rare. Stats Baseball vs Rice (Minute Maid Park) March 5, 2023 3 p.m. Tue, Mar 7 6 p.m. Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. The Fish eventually nixed the deal, although the Heralds report suggests they could still invite Gurriel to camp as a non-roster invitee. Just a real lack of context. Please logout and login again. Semien TOR. Hes a bit more human than that. Simply speaking, Mantiply has become the epitome of control. Its the Roy Campanella/Monte Irvin argument. Team Korea will also rely on a veteran behind the plate, with 14-year veteran catcher Eui-ji Yang of the NC Dinos. The first is Jung-hoo Lee, a 24-year-old outfielder for the Kiwoom Heroes. In his rookie season Kang set his career highs in home runs (29) and strikeouts (124), but since then has traded some home run power for more contact and gap power. His peak would have had to have been one of the best of all time to get him to even 50 WAR. But we're still waiting for the workaholic right-hander in the Yankees pinstripes to have his first genuinely dominant season. Hoglund came into college baseball with a reputation as an elite strike thrower, but after an up-and-down freshman season, he really came into his own in terms of missing bats last season, when he struck out 37 in 23.1 innings. Presumably, Solano took the roster spot and the salary that might have otherwise gone to Gurriel. Part of the Baseball Almanac Family, Current Through End of 2023 Regular Season. Team Koreas lineup will be headlined by Cardinals shortstop Tommy Edman and Padres infielder Ha-seong Kim, with former Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim playing a supporting role, among others. That, when applied to what I believe is a fair evaluation for foreign players who come to the U.S. at advanced ages, puts him squarely behind even a large hall standard. He was by no means a lock as a HOF case, but he made it in. By either standard, Abreus FG page doesnt give him credit for a five-year run where he averaged the equivalent of ~1.000 OPS, solely because he was born in the wrong placenot to mention the year he missed for the same reason. All Rights Reserved by Baseball Almanac, Inc.Hosted by Hosting 4 Less. In 2021, Gurriel gave fans hope that he could buck the aging curve. As most of Pirate Nation is aware, the baseball program has been greatly affected by ALS as former head coach and ECU Hall of Fame member Keith LeClair was diagnosed with the The big takeaway is that finishing the season with a higher walk rate is incredibly rare in the current environment. Roster. Subscribe to Stathead Baseball: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Baseball Reference Database. To be fair, he didnt get his MLB chance until long after his peak seasons. He stepped right into the Bigs at 27 and was immediately one of the best hitters in baseball. In order to access this exclusive content you must have a Baseball America Account. How many MLB caliber pitchers did he face or was he teeing off on A Ball level guys? Last season, he struck out 28 in just 15 innings of work, and hell go into next season with a repertoire that includes an improved changeup and a fourth pitch, a cutter. All that progress went out the window in 2022. Christian Macleod, LHP, Mississippi State. Dan Szymborski does a nice job assessing both Gurriels and Abreus HOF cases in this article. To make matters worse, Gurriels problems at the plate were exacerbated by bad plate discipline. At 25 years old, Ji-hoon Choi is 7 years younger than Park, though he is a very similar player as a left-handed hitting speedster with modest power. Maybe someday we will get a better sense of how to translate Korean or Cuban stats but we arent there yet. If Wright managed to continue this trend through the end of the season it would be the first time in his career he achieved such a feat. Accordingly, he walked more than twice as often as he did in the first five years of his career. Could see him getting the McGriff treatment, WAR be damned. But on fly balls, his quality of contact took a major hit: With that in mind, its no surprise Gurriels production on fly balls suffered in 2022: In case youre wondering, thats not a typo. And of course McGriff had his top 3 seasons by WAR in 88-90 (in MLB) and also had more WAR post-35 than Abreu is likely to achieve. To see the league-average strikeout and walk rate for every year from 1901 to the present, check the FanGraphs leaderboards. If we just restrict the list to players whose first season in the majors was later than 1970, the leader board looks like this: We can see that the leader board is dominated by players whose first season was between 1980 and 1989 (14). The result has always been a high contact rate but an equally low walk rate. Do you have a blog? Note: A bold faced entry denotes that the player was active during the previous Major League season. maybe its because Matsui produced fewer than half as much WAR in his 10 full MLB seasons as Abreu has in his 8 seasons and 60 games? To sum it all up, Gurriels biggest weakness his lack of power became an even bigger problem last season. Right now, there are a grand total of six qualified hitters who also have a higher walk than strikeout rate: I wondered how rare a feat this is, even given the increase in the three true outcomes. And hes not alone. . The league has released its projected list of ace pitchers with the most anticipated strikeouts in the 2023 season. After turning in an outstanding freshman season in 2019, Boone appeared to take a step forward in 2020, striking out 13.08 batters per nine innings after punching out 8.89 per nine innings as a freshman. But its hard to make that argument because Abreu wasnt exactly a trailblazer. In the wake of those deals, fans have started to wonder which starting pitcher will own the 2023 season. Ohtani's greatest accomplishments for the Angels in 2022 came on the mound, a year after he hit 46 home runs. He was starting to put things together in 2019 with 58 strikeouts in 48.1 innings when he went down with injury, and hell look to pick that up in 2021. In other words, he was better than average when it came to three of four possible outcomes groundballs, line drives, and balls not in play but he performed so dreadfully on fly balls that it dragged his numbers down to the basement. This Shohei Ohtani pitch from last season left his hand at 100.5 MPH and had a couple of inches of cut! Expect him to be replaced with a defensive replacement or pinch runner in the WBC. His command will help his stuff play up, but with a fastball that can touch the mid 90s as its best and a good slider, the stuff is plenty good as it is. The man is a bat-to-ball machine; he rarely strikes out and almost never whiffs. Moreover, since Gurriel rarely whiffs, he ended up making a ton of contact on pitches outside the strike zone. His work has also been featured at Baseball Prospectus, Pitcher List, and SB Nation. [8] Farm system [ edit] [9] Notes [ edit] ^ Hank Sauer at Baseball-Reference ^ Manny Mota at Baseball-Reference ^ Hoyt Wilhelm at Baseball-Reference ^ Bill Sarni at Baseball-Reference ^ John Orsino at Baseball-Reference ^ Ray Katt at Baseball-Reference This year, the Pirates will team up with the Pitt Community College and Clemson baseball programs to help fight and strikeout ALS with a goal of raising $10,000. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. I agree that theres no HoF case here, but I think there may well have been had he played in MLB from an early age (with access to the requisite training etc. Jacob DeGrom will pitch for Texas on opening day, donning a different uniform than that of the Mets for the first time in the majors. We break down the top 25 candidates. Batting 2B:SAFFORD, Will 1 HR:DROST, Brody 1 RBI:DROST, Brody 3; DAVIS, Dalton 1; SAFFORD, Will 2 BASERUNNING: RUNS:DROST, Brody 1; CORONA, Jorge 1; MYERS, Adarius 1; SAFFORD, Will 1; MCLEOD, Logan 2 HBP:CORONA, Jorge 1 Ole Miss BATTING: 2B:Lege, Ethan1 3B:Groff, Ethan1 RBI:Groff, Ethan2; Harris, Calvin1; Calarco, Anthony1; Black struck out 29 batters in 22 innings in 2020, but if what he did over the summer is any indication, hell pile up many more in 2021. Data Provided By His swing currently produces a lot of line drives, which limits his ability to drive balls out of the park, though the raw power he has suggests he could sacrifice some batting average for more power with mechanical changes. At this point, its unlikely Gurriel will find a team willing to offer him regular at-bats, and he may have to settle for a minor league deal. The fact is hes looked like a very ordinary player next to major leaguers. His stuff isnt as explosive as others at the top of this list, but he proved last season that he has a knack for the punch out. Hes between now-36 Brandon Crawford (49th) and Randy Winn (51st). This past winter, Rodon decided to forego the final year of his deal with the San Francisco Giants. Many historical player head shots courtesy of David Davis. by Handedness, The Disappearance of Hitters Who Walk More Than They Strike Out, Bauer and Cashner: An Object Lesson in Hype. I took the time to look at what hes done and compared it to a fair look at his contemporaries. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Thats exactly what happened to Gurriel, who had a .317 wOBA on balls put in play from inside the zone and a .250 wOBA on balls put in play from outside the strike zone. Also available on the infield is Ji-hwan Oh, who has won the KBO Fielding Bible Award at shortstop in each of the last two seasons. I agree we shouldnt use his Cuban #s, but, the supposition about what if he came over at age 20, IS interesting. I guess hes a Kluborg now. Most position players in the league are rated below MLB average by DRS, and some drastically so. LOS ANGELES Sophomore second baseman Duce Gourson went 3-4 with a homer and a pair of RBIs to lead No. Triples When a batter reaches on a hit and stops at third base or only advances Team Korea has built a well-balanced roster for the WBC, with some young stars, veteran leaders and quality supporting players. But I do think we should appreciate that theres only one big difference between Abreus 21-25 seasons and Josh Gibsons: So did I. I find the argument about Abreus HOF chances to be interesting though. Torras stuff isnt as big as some of his counterparts on this list, but he has a long track record of success, both at UCSB and in junior college. Therefore, not only did Gurriels walk rate plummet, but his quality of contact worsened thanks to his poor approach at the plate. On top of that, he outperformed the average hitter on balls not in play too, thanks to his minuscule strikeout rate. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
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